Powell's Fed Chair term expires May 15, 2026. Live tracker on confirmation timeline, short-list, and Senate Banking schedule.
Polymarket event: "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" — 5 live markets, $1,327,416 30-day volume.
259 sources·5 perspectives
The Takeby May 15, 2026
Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026
Market
—
Our Call
97%
Δ
—
Our reasoning
Polymarket 99%, 53 Republican seats plus Fetterman crossover signal, no credible Republican defection signals, tail-risk market at 1%.
What changes our mind
**May 13 floor vote on Chair nomination** — confirmation expected, but watch the exact margin. A clean Fetterman-only crossover signals fragile Democratic discipline going into 2026 midterms.
All forecasts
02
Senate floor tally meets or exceeds 54 YES votes
By Week of May 11, 2026
Market
—
Our Call
78%
Δ
—
Our reasoning
Fetterman YES per Semafor but not formally confirmed; no additional Democratic crossovers publicly signaled. 54 requires Fetterman; 53 is the floor with unified Republicans.
03
No Fed rate cut in calendar year 2026
By December 31, 2026
Market
—
Our Call
62%
Δ
—
Our reasoning
CME FedWatch ≤1 cut priced; Warsh hawkish stance and FAIT opposition; majority of Reuters poll economists see rates steady through September. Inflation data is swing variable.
04
Powell removed from Board of Governors in 2026
By December 31, 2026
Market
—
Our Call
22%
Δ
—
Our reasoning
Contingent on favorable Trump v. Cook SCOTUS ruling (late June 2026); legal scholars split; even a Trump win may not result in immediate removal given Powell's stated intention to stay.
05
Fed rate hike in H1 2027
By June 30, 2027
Market
—
Our Call
28%
Δ
—
Our reasoning
JP Morgan single-source forecast; requires sustained elevated inflation through 2026; market not yet pricing this scenario; flagged as speculative.
Kevin Warsh's path to the Fed chairmanship has moved from probable to all-but-confirmed.
On May 12 the Senate confirmed him to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors 51-45, with John Fetterman the lone Democrat backing him.
The Senate scheduled the separate vote on his Chair nomination for May 13, before Chair Powell's term expires May 15.
Polymarket has tightened from 99% to 100% on Warsh confirmation.
Our pre-registered May 5 call was 97% — that call is now scoring this week, providing the first public calibration data point for IntelScroll.
May 12, 2026: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors 51-45. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) is the sole Democrat in favor; every other Democrat opposed.
May 13, 2026 (scheduled): Senate vote on Warsh's separate Chair nomination. Republican leadership has the floor time secured before Powell's term ends Friday May 15.
May 11: Cloture vote on Warsh's Board nomination passed 49-44 along party lines, clearing the procedural threshold for final confirmation.
April 29: Senate Banking Committee advanced Warsh's nomination 13-11 along party lines.
Polymarket has tightened from 99% YES to 100% YES on Warsh-confirmed-as-Chair as the cloture path cleared.
Powell's official term as Fed Chair expires Friday May 15, 2026. He has stated his intention to remain on the Board of Governors through his Governor term (Jan 2028).
+37pp from pre-committee baseline2026-05-04Polymarket
$48.4 million
Polymarket volume (Warsh confirmation market)
2026-05-04Polymarket
4.25%–4.50%
Fed funds target rate
2026-04-29FOMC
8–4
FOMC dissent vote (April 29)
2026-04-29CNBC
$6.7 trillion
Fed balance sheet size (Warsh target for reduction)
2026-04-21Senate Banking Committee testimony
Scenarios3click to expand
Warsh confirmed week of May 11 at ~54–46; assumes chair May 15; implements hawkish pivot gradually — no cuts in 2026, measured QT acceleration, forward guidance scaled back but not eliminated abruptly. Powell remains a non-disruptive governor. SCOTUS rules narrowly in Trump v. Cook preserving Fed governor independence.
Fetterman votes YES as signaled; Republican unity holds on floor vote
SCOTUS rules narrowly or upholds Fed governor independence in Trump v. Cook
CPI prints remain stable; no inflation spike forcing emergency response
Higher-for-longer rates through 2026.
Equity risk premium modest expansion.
Fed institutional credibility challenged but structure intact.
Markets adapt to reduced forward guidance over 2-3 quarters.
Warsh confirmed with broader bipartisan support (55+ votes), bolstering independence credibility. Inflation cools faster than expected, enabling a more neutral Warsh stance. SCOTUS preserves Fed independence cleanly. Warsh's QT approach proves measured and market-friendly.
2+ Democratic crossovers signal bipartisan legitimacy; credibility premium expands
CPI prints at or below 2.5% in May–June; PCE softens
SCOTUS rules cleanly for Fed independence in Trump v. Cook
Warsh confirmed but enters amid governance crisis: SCOTUS grants Trump removal power in Trump v. Cook enabling Powell removal; Pirro reopens criminal probe; FOMC fractures deepen with 3+ dissenters at first Warsh meeting; Warsh eliminates dot plot abruptly at first FOMC.
SCOTUS grants Trump removal power; Powell removed or resigns under pressure
Pirro reopens Powell probe based on IG findings; Senate Democrats escalate
Warsh first FOMC triggers multi-dissent public revolt or abrupt guidance elimination
Fed independence premium collapses.
Treasury yields spike on credibility loss.
USD volatile and potentially weakens on governance risk premium.
Gold and inflation hedges outperform.
Potential contagion to EM if global confidence in Fed breaks.
Price levels3
FED_FUNDSsupportNow: 4.375At: 4.375— Current midpoint held at April 29 FOMC; Warsh hawkish — no cut expected in 2026 per CME FedWatch
FED_FUNDStargetNow: 4.375At: 4.625— JP Morgan early 2027 rate hike scenario midpoint if inflation remains sticky (single-source, low confidence)
FED_FUNDStargetNow: 4.375At: 4.125— One-cut downside scenario per CME FedWatch for year-end 2026 — low probability under Warsh
May 13 floor vote on Chair nomination — confirmation expected, but watch the exact margin. A clean Fetterman-only crossover signals fragile Democratic discipline going into 2026 midterms.
Warsh's first public remarks as Chair-elect — language on FAIT (Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) and the dual mandate will shape near-term rate expectations.
Trump v. Cook SCOTUS ruling (late June 2026) — if Trump prevails, governs whether sitting governors can be removed for cause. Affects whether Powell can be forced off the Board.
June FOMC meeting — first decision under Warsh's confirmed chairmanship. Polymarket pricing no-change at 98%.
Procedural delay (~3% residual risk on our call): a quorum issue or unexpected vote-postponement pushes the Chair vote into next week. Powell's Chair term lapses Friday with no successor; awkward but not historically unprecedented.
Coordinated Democratic vote-flip to deny cloture on the Chair nomination — would require 4+ defections from the cloture-yes side. Extremely unlikely given Fetterman is the only crossover.
Warsh withdraws under unexpected disclosure pressure — Probability <1%. Nothing in the public record suggests this.
Powell challenges removal if Trump moves to remove him from the Board after Chair term ends — would shift markets, but doesn't affect the binary 'Warsh confirmed as Chair' question.
Rates curve: Warsh confirmation is fully priced. Markets are now watching his June FOMC posture — Polymarket prices 98% no-change.
Dollar: A confirmed hawkish Chair removes the 'Trump pressures dovish Fed' tail risk that was bid into spot through Q1.
Calibration commitment: Our pre-registered probability was 97% on May 5; market was 99%. We held 2 points back for tail risk. Confirmation this week resolves our first publicly tracked binary call.