Tuesday, May 12
The IntelScroll Scoreboard · Vol. 1
The pundits won't tell you their record.
We will.
Markets price probability. So do we — on every forecast, with a number, a horizon, and a calibration trail. Below: where we agree with the market, where we disagree, and why.
Live calls
Each row is a forecast we publish. Market is the Polymarket / Kalshi consensus. Our Call is our calibrated probability. Δ is where we disagree — a tradeable signal.
Question
Market
Our Call
Δ
Will Trump complete his state visit to China by May 31, 2026? RESOLVING SOON
Trump completes a state visit to China by May 31, 2026 (contract resolves YES) · by 2026-05-31
100%
99%
-1
Why we agree Visit is happening; the 1-point tail accounts for non-zero probability of unexpected truncation (health event, security incident) before the formal Friday departure that would still technically…
Who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? RESOLVING SOON
Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026 · by May 15, 2026
—
97%
—
Our reasoning Polymarket 99%, 53 Republican seats plus Fetterman crossover signal, no credible Republican defection signals, tail-risk market at 1%.
Will Ramp or Brex IPO first?
Ramp will IPO before Brex (headline resolution) · by 2039-12-31
85%
99%
+14
Why we disagree The post-acquisition reality is that Brex literally cannot IPO independently.
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic normalize by end of June 2026?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to pre-crisis levels by June 30, 2026 · by 2026-06-30
33%
24%
-9
Why we disagree We sit 8 points below the market because (1) Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's counterproposal removes the most plausible near-term track to political settlement, (2) sea-mine clearance and IRGC…
When Will the US-Iran War End? Ceasefire, Peace Deal & Regime-Change Probabilities
US-Iran permanent peace deal signed by June 30, 2026 · by 2026-06-30
28%
21%
-7
Why we disagree Structural nuclear incompatibility plus only 56 days remaining make permanent deal unlikely; May 4 escalation and fragile mediation suggest momentum toward conflict, not resolution.
Will May 2026 CPI come in at or above 3.5% year-over-year?
May 2026 CPI YoY headline reads at or above 3.5% · by 2026-06-12
78%
72%
-6
Why we disagree We sit 6 points below the market because (1) base effects from May 2025's low energy prices create slight downward pressure on YoY comparison, (2) Truflation real-time tracker is at 3.6% with…
Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?
Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the October 2026 election · by 2026-10-27
41%
36%
-5
Why we disagree Coalition arithmetic (49-51 seats vs 61 needed) is binding; 10-12 seat deficit makes coalition formation less likely than market prices despite Netanyahu's personal poll lead.
2028 US Presidential Election: Who Wins?
JD Vance wins 2028 Republican nomination · by July 2028 (Republican National Convention)
40%
38%
-2
Why we agree VP incumbency and polling lead support market pricing, but noted erosion plus Rubio's rapid 3→35% consolidation suggests nomination dynamics favor challengers
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?
Xi Jinping remains in power (does not leave office) through end of 2026 · by 2026-12-31
93%
95%
+2
Why we agree Xi's consolidated power and absence of removal mechanisms make 8-month displacement extremely unlikely; market may be pricing modest excess tail risk for black swans.
Will the June 17-18 FOMC hold rates at 3.50-3.75%?
The June 17-18 FOMC meeting holds rates at 3.50-3.75% (no change) · by 2026-06-18
97%
96%
-1
Why we agree We hold 1 point below the market because Warsh's first meeting introduces a small additional uncertainty bucket
Which company has the best AI model?
Anthropic holds #1 LMArena position through June 30, 2026 Polymarket settlement · by June 30, 2026
62%
63%
+1
Why we agree Short 8-week settlement window and incumbent position favor Anthropic despite GPT-5.5's agentic benchmark strength
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
China conducts a full military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026 · by 2026-12-31
—
4%
—
Our reasoning PLA 2027 readiness target not yet met
we're higher than the market we're lower within 3 pts