Long-horizon tracker for the 2028 US Presidential race. Focus on declarations, primary calendar, polling, fundraising, and Polymarket pricing.
Polymarket event: "Presidential Election Winner 2028" — 10 live markets, $78,137,834 30-day volume.
167 sources·5 perspectives
The Takeby July 2028 (Republican National Convention)
JD Vance wins 2028 Republican nomination
Market
40%
Our Call
38%
Δ
-2
Why we agree
VP incumbency and polling lead support market pricing, but noted erosion plus Rubio's rapid 3→35% consolidation suggests nomination dynamics favor challengers; early timing (2.5yr out) increases uncertainty.
What changes our mind
Vance 'Communion' memoir release — June 16, 2026 (HarperCollins): first major earned-media test of his 2028 narrative; watch for interview framing and any polling response within 30 days.
All forecasts
02
Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Democratic nomination
By August 2028 (Democratic National Convention)
Market
20%
Our Call
21%
Δ
+1
Why we agree
Leads trader consensus at ~26% but faces a crowded field and potential Harris entry that would compress his ceiling significantly. Path is clearest if Harris does not enter.
Why our call differs from market
Market at 20% slightly undervalues Newsom's executive profile and national positioning, but Harris entry as sitting VP would likely compress him further; 21% reflects mid-tier nomination odds in a crowded field.
03
Kamala Harris formally enters the 2028 race
By Q4 2026
Market
45%
Our Call
53%
Δ
+8
Why we disagree
Three explicit 'I'm thinking about it' statements (April 10, 2026); 50% in Harvard CAPS polling; opted against 2026 CA governor race preserving optionality. Entry depends on whether she can construct a credible answer to the electability question.
Why our call differs from market
Recent explicit consideration statements and 50% polling support suggest higher likelihood than 45% market; electability question is real but appears not to be deterring active consideration.
04
Democratic Party wins 2028 presidential election
By November 2028
Market
58%
Our Call
55%
Δ
-3
Why we disagree
Prediction markets show approximately 60-61% Democratic win probability at all-time high. Directionally credible given current polling environment but structurally contingent on 2026 midterm results and nominee selection. Applied a slight discount from market price given pre-midterm uncertainty.
Why our call differs from market
Market price reasonable but midterms haven't occurred yet (Nov 2026), and historical presidential races are more competitive than the 8-point margin implies.
05
Marco Rubio emerges as top-tier GOP challenger to Vance
By Q2 2027
Market
30%
Our Call
22%
Δ
-8
Why we disagree
CPAC surge (3%→35%) is the strongest grassroots signal against Vance in the cycle but CPAC is non-representative. Needs validation in YouGov/RCP polling before tier-1 classification. Formally serving as Secretary of State complicates a 2028 primary posture.
Why our call differs from market
CPAC surge is real but non-representative; sitting Secretary of State makes late primary entry logistically difficult and strategically risky—most Cabinet members avoid this. Top-tier requires sustained momentum beyond activist voters, whic
The most consequential development in the 2028 cycle as of early May 2026 is Kamala Harris's repeated 'I'm thinking about it' at the April 10, 2026 National Action Network convention — her most explicit 2028 signal to date, confirmed independently by CNN, Washington Post, and Al Jazeera — arriving against the backdrop of a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll (April 23–26, 2026) placing her at 50% among Democrats, 28 points ahead of Newsom at 22%.
This creates the cycle's sharpest analytical tension: a candidate who dominates primary polling yet trades at only 11% on Polymarket for the Democratic nomination, suggesting traders are pricing significant electability risk or a base preference for a fresher face — the precise tension CNN's May 1 analysis captured as the base being 'ready for something new.' On the Republican side, JD Vance retains the clearest GOP frontrunner status — 39% on Polymarket for the nomination, 45.5% in the RealClearPolling primary average — but has shed roughly 15 Polymarket points from his October 2025 peak of 32.8%, and his YouGov primary support has slipped from 41% to 36% between January and April 2026.
The CPAC 2026 straw poll (March 25–28, 2026) showed Vance at 53% (down from 61%) while Marco Rubio surged from 3% to 35% — the single most dramatic grassroots shift of the current cycle.
Vance's 'Communion' memoir (HarperCollins, June 16, 2026) represents his first major earned-media test of the cycle.
The Democratic field beyond Harris is highly fragmented.
Newsom leads trader consensus at ~26% for the Democratic nomination and is executing a soft campaign through his New Hampshire book tour (March 5, 2026).
Cory Booker's $21.9M cash-on-hand as of April 17, 2026 — the strongest Democratic fundraising signal in the dataset — gives him operational credibility.
Andy Beshear's electability pitch (three straight wins in a Trump+30 state) and DGA chairmanship are building national infrastructure.
The Democratic Party's overall 2028 win probability sits at approximately 60–61% on prediction markets, an all-time high driven by current generic ballot polling — though this figure is pre-midterm and could shift materially after November 2026.
Republican dark horse narrative should be treated with significant skepticism: his last verified statement (August 15, 2025) was an explicit denial of any 2028 run, no verified 2026 statement contradicts that denial, and reported Polymarket GOP nomination odds of ~49% directly contradict his 3.8% RealClearPolling primary average — that market figure is rejected as a thin-market artifact.
Harris signals 2028 intent — 'I'm thinking about it' repeated three times at April 10, 2026 NAN convention (confirmed CNN, WaPo, Al Jazeera); Harvard CAPS/Harris poll (April 23–26) places her at 50% among Democrats, making her formal declaration the highest-impact pending binary in the cycle
Vance erosion confirmed across metrics — shed ~15 Polymarket points from October 2025 peak (32.8%) to April 2026 (~18–21%); YouGov primary support fell from 41% to 36% (January–April 2026); CPAC shows Rubio surging from 3% to 35%
Booker leads Democratic war-chest — $21.9M cash on hand as of April 17, 2026 (Axios FEC tracking), including $9.7M Q2 2025 spike; top among Democratic lawmakers tracked
Democratic Party at all-time-high overall win probability — approximately 60.5–61% on prediction markets as of mid-April 2026, driven by generic ballot polling advantage; structurally contingent on November 2026 midterm results
RFK Jr. Polymarket GOP odds rejected as noise — reported ~49% GOP nominee odds directly contradict his 3.8% RealClearPolling primary average and his own August 2025 on-record denial
+28pts over Newsom at 22%2026-04-26Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll
Scenarios3click to expand
Vance wins GOP nomination, Newsom or Shapiro wins Democratic nomination after Harris does not enter. Close general election in the 50-52% range. Democrats win narrowly on the strength of their current structural advantage.
Harris does not formally declare by mid-2027
Vance 'Communion' memoir stabilizes his faith-voter base without generating backlash
2026 midterms produce modest Democratic gains (10-15 House seats, not a wave)
Continuation of current market pricing; Polymarket implied probabilities remain broadly stable through 2027.
Harris enters Q3-Q4 2026, consolidates Democratic primary rapidly given her 50% polling lead, wins general election against Vance or Rubio on a wave built by strong 2026 midterm performance.
Harris formally declares by October 2026
2026 midterms produce 30+ House seat Democratic gain
Democratic Party overall win probability reprices from 61% to 70%+.
Harris Polymarket odds reprice from 11% to 40%+.
All Democratic nominee market positions reprice sharply.
Democratic nominee market remains fragmented through 2027 with no consensus heir. Vance consolidates or is replaced by Rubio who proves more electable. GOP wins on a reverse-wave from 2026 midterm Democratic disappointment.
Harris does not enter, no candidate reaches 40% in Democratic primary polls by Q1 2027
2026 midterms disappoint Democrats, repricing their 61% win probability
Rubio validates CPAC surge in formal polling and formalizes campaign
Republican overall win probability reprices from ~39% to 45%+.
Democratic nominee market remains illiquid and fragmented.
Democratic 61% win probability retreats toward 50-54%.
Vance 'Communion' memoir release — June 16, 2026 (HarperCollins): first major earned-media test of his 2028 narrative; watch for interview framing and any polling response within 30 days.
2026 midterm election results (November 2026): the first hard electoral data point of the cycle; Democratic generic ballot advantage is currently pricing the party's 61% overall win probability — any GOP overperformance resets this baseline.
Newsom 2028 formal declaration window: his New Hampshire book tour stop (March 5, 2026) was a soft launch; watch for California budget session conclusion (~June 2026) as the earliest plausible formal announcement moment.
Cory Booker cash-on-hand filing (next FEC deadline): his $21.9M COH as of April 17, 2026 is the strongest Democratic war-chest signal; a second consecutive strong quarter confirms a real campaign infrastructure build.
RFK Jr. on-record 2028 statement: any verified public statement in 2026 (versus the adversarial Schlossberg claim) would be the most significant single data point to resolve the 49% Polymarket vs 3.8% polling divergence.
Josh Shapiro Pennsylvania re-election campaign launch and Q2 2026 fundraising report: his $30M+ COH and swing-state positioning make his fundraising trajectory a leading indicator of Democratic establishment consolidation.
Vance's CPAC 2026 straw poll lead narrowed sharply — down from 61% to 53% while Rubio surged from 3% to 35% (March 25–28, 2026) — suggesting grassroots consolidation risk if Rubio converts K Street and donor momentum into polling gains.
RFK Jr.'s 49% Polymarket GOP nominee odds rest on zero verified 2026 statements of intent and directly contradict his August 15, 2025 denial; a single on-record statement from Kennedy could collapse this market position violently.
Harris's Harvard CAPS 50% Democratic primary lead (April 23–26, 2026) versus her 11% Polymarket price creates a binary risk: if she formally enters, her polling support could reprice trader odds dramatically, reshuffling the entire Democratic field.
Pritzker's signal that he will NOT self-finance removes a $330M+ financial floor that defined his prior campaigns; without self-funding, his viability depends on institutional donor networks not yet publicly committed, introducing a significant funding-gap risk.
Democratic Party's 61% overall win probability is built on pre-midterm generic ballot polling — if the 2026 midterms disappoint Democrats, this all-time-high probability could retrace sharply, resetting the entire 2028 landscape.
Vance's 'Communion' memoir release (June 16, 2026) is a high-visibility positioning event that could either consolidate his faith-voter base or generate backlash scrutiny of his 2019 Catholic conversion narrative, with asymmetric downside given his already declining trajectory.
The 49% RFK Jr. GOP nominee Polymarket price is a mispriced outlier with no verified supporting statements and a 45-point gap versus polling averages — it represents an exploitable short position for traders with high conviction on the polling-market divergence.
Democratic Party's 61% overall win probability all-time high is a pre-midterm leading indicator, not a durable signal; it should be treated as a ceiling until 2026 midterm results either validate or deflate the generic ballot advantage embedded in current pricing.
The Harris 50% poll / 11% Polymarket gap is the largest single pricing anomaly in the Democratic field — her formal entry or exit will be the most consequential binary event for Democratic nominee market structure, likely triggering cascading repricing across Newsom, Booker, and Shapiro positions.
Vance's general election implied probability (~21.6%) now runs below his GOP nominee probability (~39%), meaning traders are pricing meaningful general-election underperformance even if he wins the primary — Rubio's CPAC surge and Vance's declining YouGov numbers suggest the market is ahead of the story, not behind it.